You are guaranteed a free bet regardless of the outcome of the game. Did you know you can make money on football — or any sport — without even using a bookmaker? By using Betfair Exchange , you can back for and against outcomes similarly to how you would on a regular bookmaker. This can be a complex process to get your head around, but we have a post that should really help you out: The Definitive Guide to Betfair Trading. This is a bankroll management system, rather than strictly a football betting system, but it is something you should definitely consider:.
Based on sound money management, the Kelly Criterion is a betting system that implements a calculated method to determine the stake of a bet on an outcome with higher-than-expected odds. For those who get headaches from formulas such as the above, the stake, put simply, is the difference between the probability of winning and losing as determined by you.
Just like any system the Kelly Criterion has its drawbacks, and these are quite pronounced in football betting. Firstly, using the example above, it often asks you to invest a significant amount of your bankroll on a bet. Here, we look at the betting systems that are not sensible or profitable long-term investments of time or money.
The Martingale Method basically entails a bettor doubling their stake immediately following any losing even-money bet, thereby allowing the first win to recover all previous losses. Anyone who has invested time and money in sports betting understands that no matter how sound your research and analysis has been, a series of losing bets by account of bad luck is entirely possible.
The reality is a lot different. Stay clear of the of the Martingale Method when wagering on football — the only way it would ever work is if you had infinite amounts of money. This is impossible of course. Among the three possible outcomes to football matches — win, loss or draw — one often gets overlooked, the draw. The Fibonacci Method is based on a mathematical sequence where each new number equals the total of the previous two.
A betting strategy also known as betting system is a structured approach to gambling , in the attempt to produce a profit. To be successful, the system must change the house edge into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a perpetual motion machine. Mathematically, no betting system can alter long-term expected results in a game with random, independent trials , although they can make for higher odds of short-term winning at the cost of increased risk, and are an enjoyable gambling experience for some people.
Strategies which take into account the changing odds that exist in some games e. Theorem 1: If a gambler risks a finite capital over many plays in a game with constant single-trial probability of winning, losing, and tying, then any and all betting systems lead ultimately to the same value of mathematical expectation of gain per unit amount wagered.
Some Horse racing betting systems can be based on pure statistical analysis of the odds, while others also analysis of physical factors e. Common forms of betting systems for horse racing are:. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Strategy for wagering. Gulf Professional Publishing. Retrieved
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|Spreadex sports free bet||Just like any system the Kelly Criterion has its drawbacks, and these are quite pronounced in football betting. Your budget will also decide how big your average wager will be and is an essential component to your effective betting strategy. Pundit Feed. Betting strategies are important for punters who have adopted sports betting as a business and are committed to long-term success. Betfair is the most common book-maker that offers possibilities to hedge your bet.|
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Here are the results. This system involves you betting your entire balance on every bet. The advantage is that if you win, you win big. Conversely, if you lose, you lose it all. The Martingale system has you double your bet after every loss, so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus a profit equal to the original bet. The Martingale betting strategy is seen as a sure thing by some since a gambler with an unlimited bankroll will eventually win.
Also, every casino or sportsbook has a betting limit on the amount they will accept that will almost certainly be reached before the gambler wins. This system requires you to bet a fixed amount on each bet. Proportional betting systems require betting a portion of your bankroll and then increasing your bets by that same percentage after each win. The Fibonacci sequence are numbers in the following sequence:. By definition, the first two numbers in the Fibonacci sequence are either 1 and 1, or 0 and 1, depending on the chosen starting point of the sequence, and each subsequent number is the sum of the previous two.
You lose. It is important to make it clear in advance that it is only possible to win in bets when you are playing in inaccurate markets, where there is a margin for uncertainty. In other words, nobody will ever find a game system that allows you to win in the long term in games of pure probability, with fixed probabilities.
For example, there is no strategy to win long-term in casino roulette , considering that its operation is statistically perfect. Some readers will remember the famous case of Los Pelayo. They took advantage of the physical deficiencies of the tables some inclination, etc , which caused probabilities that were not statistically perfect. But nevertheless, yes, it is possible to win at the bookmakers in games of non-pure probability, not exact odds, where there is a margin of error.
These games will usually be sports, although it is not the only case; there are very advanced models to calculate the probability of a sporting event, but none are accurate enough. If you have a system that allows you to go just one step ahead of the other players, you will end up winning in the long term.
A strategy will help you identify where these calculation errors typically occur to take advantage of them in your favor. Keep reading and discover with us how to win by betting. On this website you can learn everything and find all the resources and tools necessary to beat the bookmakers in the long term, no gimmicks, in a completely transparent way.
Continue reading and you will be able to see for yourself. There are many types of strategies, with different purposes, different philosophies, different objectives, etc. You can think of each of these strategies as if they were your weapon to fight with the bookmaker, and your goal should be to get your hands on an arsenal of them. Consider that the more weapons you have and the better you know how to use them, the more likely you are to succeed. Every bettor must treasure for himself all those strategies that suit his profile as an investor.
For example, some prefer to bet on live events, while others prefer to do it before the beginning and dedicate themselves to other things while the game goes on. Some prefer to take higher risks and obtain higher returns, while others prefer to minimize the risks and therefore also the returns. Some prefer to place few bets while others prefer to place many bets. Maybe you settle for lower profits in the short term, or are you more ambitious and prefer greater returns in the long term?
Your profile as a bettor is only known by you : you are the only one who knows in what kind of scenarios you will feel more comfortable. Having said this, within the portfolio of every bettor you can find strategies of the following types among others working in coordinated combination:. These types of strategies or systems are based on the selection of bets whose price or odds are paid above their real value , so that an advantage in the long run for the bettor on the bookmaker is obtained.
These types of strategies are what should form the hard core of any method to bet if you want to be successful in the long term, and they are precisely the kind of strategies that can be analyzed using the Betamin Builder tool. Otherwise, analyzing, designing and following these strategies may require excessive time.
Odds, or exact value, for a sports bet is impossible to know for sure. Of course there are many algorithms to calculate these odds, more or less complex, but in the exact calculation of that value come into play so many factors of such a variety that can be influenced a multitude of different ways, that the exact calculation seems impossible to determine.
It could only be shown that a set of odds generated by our algorithm are more or less closer to the exact value than another set generated by another different algorithm, but it is not possible to demonstrate that the individual odds figure, in itself, is accurate, given that it is not possible to repeat the same exact sporting event as many times as necessary thousands of times until you prove that the calculated probability is the exact one.
However, there is also bad news, knowing how to detect these errors is extremely difficult : it is necessary to have a large amount of data to be able to analyze, do back-testing to prove theories, etc. To cover this need we have created the Betamin Builder tool, assembling large amounts of data about football bets accessible to everyone in a simple way.
Therefore, we can see a value betting strategy as an algorithm or method that is able to detect bets whose probability of having value is very high. That is, no one can ever know for sure when a bet has value except in very extreme cases , but we can know if the set of bets generated by a strategy of this type, as a whole, have value. What we have just seen implies that these type of betting strategies require relatively large amounts of bets to know if a strategy works correctly as expected, that is, these are strategies to use in the long term.
This would be the exact and fair odds for this bet. We can then say without fear of making a mistake that a 2. However, in real life, ideal cases do not always occur as stated. In real life, after coin tosses, it could happen, and it would not be strange, that 60 heads and 40 tails come up, or even more disparate cases. What would happen if we keep betting, that is, if we go to the long term? Well according to the law of large numbers we would get more similar results to the ideal case.
For example, it would not be unreasonable to think that after bets you could get faces and crosses. Still below the expected profitability, but already begin to be positive results. The same approach is the other way around, that is, we have seen the example of what happens if luck goes against us when we throw the coin, but if luck was in our favor, obviously the results would change a lot.
If in tosses we won 60 bets at odds 2. But it is important to be aware that this does not mean that our bets were better, but that luck was on our side. Here is one of the main reasons why the public loses money betting , and it is nothing other than that, in general, the bettor does not have the patience and discipline necessary to persevere in the long term and overcome the challenges of bad luck and then take advantage of the favorable winds of good luck when it comes to us.
As an obvious conclusion of all this, the greater the expected return of a strategy Yield or ROI , the lower the probability of suffering losses with it in the short term. However, in the long term, all positive expectation strategies will end up giving positive results, according to the law of large numbers. Below are several examples from our blog of value betting strategies that are currently working well and returning profits in the long term , analyzed to the last detail, that you can follow by yourself or else you can follow them through our Betamin Builder tool.
If you want to know all our articles on sports betting strategies you have them available at this link. These strategies, although they do not strictly require the use of betting exchanges, are usually executed in this type of betting platform because they facilitate their operations. As we have said before, these strategies are oriented towards a lower benefit in the short term and low risk, but they involve much greater dedication of time and effort.
This is because in addition to selecting the matches that we are going to enter, once the game is started it is necessary to be attentive to their evolution to know when to execute the trading order and thus close the bet with a result, either positive or negative. They are much more demanding strategies in many aspects. It becomes much more difficult for the bettor to control his irrational impulses and act with a cool head when watching a game live on television or following it on the radio, especially if it is his favorite team.
As a general rule, the operation of this type of strategy will consist in making a back bet to a specific event when it is paid at a relatively high price here it is worth looking for bets with value , in order to later make a bet against Lay bet when its price is lower, thus ensuring a profit regardless of the final result.
A typical example could be to back the draw at the start of a game, and if after a few minutes the game is tied the odds will have dropped enough to bet against the draw and leave with guaranteed profit, regardless of what happens. The objective of these type of strategies will normally be to achieve the highest possible profitability while avoiding the risk of bankruptcy. As in all strategies, there is no bank management strategy better or worse than another, but one will adapt better than another to your own objectives and way of betting.
After a cycle to be defined by the bettor, which can be spent a month or more, or it can be when a certain amount has been reached in the bank above or below , or it can be when a certain number of bets have been placed, the stake is recalculated based on the bank at that time and bets are placed with the new stake during another cycle.
The advantages of this way of betting are the simplicity you do not complicate your life calculating each stake , and it could also be said, its transparency. Using flat stakes, the results end successfully only if they are bets with value, there is no trap. As in everything, there are defenders and detractors of this system.
Simply, if it fits like a glove to your way of betting, use it. The philosophy of this stake management strategy is based on the fact that for bets with lower odds, which are more frequently guessed correctly, we will invest a larger stake than the one invested for larger odds, which are solved less frequently. In this way you try to get a bank as stable as possible , given that a bad run of many bets lost at high odds will not make a big break in the bank.
However, we are never free from a bad run at low odds , which could cause a big hole in your bank. The ways to calculate the stake in this type of strategies are varied, and as always, it depends on your own way of betting; for example, a specific stake can be used for each odds range.
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