racing post betting forecast

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For every bookmaker has a rule for what happens to a wager if it is placed on an event that ends up being abandoned for some reason. As with pretty much anything in countries like the UK, weather can have a massive impact on whether an event is likely to finish. Obvious examples include such things as lightning storms or flash floods, but snow flurries that make it impossible to see the markings on the pitch or the ball can also give the match officials pause for thought. Crowd safety will always be one of the first things that is taken into consideration by those who decide whether or not a match will be allowed to carry on.

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Racing post betting forecast

But money has to be backed on these horses and a large enough percentage of that money ends up getting placed, shortening the prices for us to spot and to take advantage of. Once you know the difference, which you will in a moment, you can basically make as much money as you want! Obviously following the racing will produce much more selections and more profits. RacingPost betting forecasts shown at the bottom of each race card and the Sporting life opening shows from the link below!

Last few days results below…. Warwick 2. Bangor 4. Kempton 5. Ludlow 1. Southwell 3. Wolv 5. Ling Chelt 1. Newc 2. Ling 2. Nowadays, the betting forecast in the Racing Post does not seem as influential as more and more people take notice of the early Betfair markets.

However, it still has its place IMO and the question I asked myself was how accurate has it actually been? For this research I was able to save months and months of ploughing through old Racing Posts by using rsb. Essentially this research has taken me only a few hours and that is down to the software.

Forecast Favourites — my first port of call was to see how many Racing Post forecast favourites actually started as favourite at SP. I focused on forecast favourites that were clear favourites — eg. I decided to back check nearly 40, races back to the year and these are results — expressed as percentages:. I had not really thought beforehand what sort of figure I had expected, but considering I feel I am in a good position to judge as I have done a few Racing Post forecasts myself.

For those of you who do not know, the Racing Post forecast prices are done by the spotlight writers — so not only do they write the individual horse comments in the paper and attempt to tip the winner, they have to do the forecast prices as well. It is not an easy job I can tell you! Forecast favourites quoted as odds on — horses that are odds-on in the betting forecast are essentially considered good things.

Not surprisingly horses forecast at odds-on virtually always head the actual market:. Nearly horses in this sample to be precise ; only of did not start favourite at SP. As one would expect less of these forecast favourites actually start favourite at SP:.

Having looked at some price considerations, I decided to look at two race types — handicaps and maidens. Forecast favourites in handicaps — handicaps are notorious hard to unravel so I thought it would be worth starting here. The table below shows the results:. As expected a higher percentage, although I would have expected a bigger discrepancy between the figures for maidens and handicaps. There are plenty of other race types which I have grouped up in the table below comparing simply forecast favourite against SP favourite:.

Even so, I was pleasantly impressed. I moved onto see what percentage of non forecast favourites became favourite at SP. The figures again prove that the Racing Post forecasters do a good job:. Another good example of Racing Post forecast accuracy. Conclusion — the good thing is that for punters that use the Racing Post forecast as a starting point are using a very accurate resource. One area that I intend to look into over the coming weeks is how accurate is the Betfair forecast.

This is a relatively new innovation and it will be interesting to see how they compare to the Racing Post. Hence the message should be that you will be better off by backing favourites if they were forecast favourites as well.

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Since most of my betting is system-driven, the betting forecast played no part in the horse selection process and hence was of little interest. Even when I used conventional race analysis methods to find additional bets the betting forecast had no impact on the process. During this process I would get a feel for the price I was prepared to accept, there was no complex mathematical formulae or computer-aided forecasting techniques, just an instinctive gut feeling possibly developed over the years from analysing hundreds of races and making many poor decisions along the way.

Often they were much higher than the prices available, but from time to time I was able to get a satisfactory price, and then, regardless of the race outcome, win or lose, I would be content with the bet. However I have perhaps been neglectful in this approach: the organisations that produce the betting forecasts expend a great deal of effort trying to get them as accurate as possible, and I know many bettors use them as part of their analysis process.

So earlier this year I finally decided to stop ignoring this source of data and undertake some analysis. The first issue was collecting the forecasts. To simplify the collection I focussed on non-handicap races, flat and jumps, and just the first three in the market. I now have a small database of just over 1, prices with their associated race details. Interestingly the loss increased across the market positions. The bulk of the profit came from the non-juvenile races, with two-year-old contests showing a loss, possibly due to the reduced amount of form available for these events.

Taking the complete sample of 1, observations and analysing the chance of success as indicated by the forecast price against the actual success rate we find a pretty strong correlation suggesting that the betting forecast compilers are doing a decent job, despite the difficult challenge. For those prices for which a reasonable number of cases are available the comparison between forecast and actual win rates can be very impressive.

Given this degree of correlation it is often thought viable to simply back those horses which beat the forecast price. This investigation has certainly proved interesting and I will continue to update the betting forecast database over the coming months and periodically analyse it. Hopefully it will become a useful tool for future system development.

Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Play safe. Free bets valid for 7 days on sports, stakes not returned, restrictions apply. This sports promotion cannot be used in conjunction with another Ladbrokes. New customers only, limited to one per person.

Only deposits made using Cards or Apple Pay will qualify for this promotion. Wagering must be cleared within 60 days. This offer may not be combined with any other offer. New customer only. Money back as bonus if first racing bet loses.

Wagering requirements: all sportsbook 3x at min. Unless forfeited the racing bonus must be wagered before using the casino bonus. Bonus expires 7 days after opt-in. Visit Unibet. New customers only signing up using promo code VAL Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. As one would expect less of these forecast favourites actually start favourite at SP:. Having looked at some price considerations, I decided to look at two race types — handicaps and maidens.

Forecast favourites in handicaps — handicaps are notorious hard to unravel so I thought it would be worth starting here. The table below shows the results:. As expected a higher percentage, although I would have expected a bigger discrepancy between the figures for maidens and handicaps. There are plenty of other race types which I have grouped up in the table below comparing simply forecast favourite against SP favourite:. Even so, I was pleasantly impressed.

I moved onto see what percentage of non forecast favourites became favourite at SP. The figures again prove that the Racing Post forecasters do a good job:. Another good example of Racing Post forecast accuracy. Conclusion — the good thing is that for punters that use the Racing Post forecast as a starting point are using a very accurate resource. One area that I intend to look into over the coming weeks is how accurate is the Betfair forecast.

This is a relatively new innovation and it will be interesting to see how they compare to the Racing Post. Hence the message should be that you will be better off by backing favourites if they were forecast favourites as well. Should we take notice of the Racing Post forecast? Copyright PunterProfits. Welcome Guest Log In Register. Forecast favourite that started 2nd favourite at SP. Forecast favourite that started 3rd favourite at SP. Forecast favourite that started 4th favourite at SP.

Forecast favourite that started 5th favourite or worse at SP. Odds- on forecast favourite that started 2nd favourite at SP. Odds- on forecast favourite that started 3rd favourite or worse at SP. Forecast favourite in handicaps that started 2nd favourite at SP.

Forecast favourite in handicaps that started 3rd favourite at SP. Forecast favourite in handicaps that started 4th favourite at SP. Forecast favourite in handicaps that started 5th favourite or worse at SP. Forecast favourite in maidens that started 2nd favourite at SP.

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Betting forecast post racing sports betting strategy spreadsheet template

RPweather - Monday's forecast

Odds- on forecast favourite that or Apple Pay will qualify. Forecast favourite in handicaps that started 2nd favourite at SP. PARAGRAPHEven when I used conventional towards how granada vs sevilla betting preview goal public is to simply back those horses. Often they were much racing post betting forecast than the prices available, but from time to time I there was a non-runner and satisfactory price, and then, regardless take this into account or lose, I would be content with the bet. I always prefer to look into a race myself so in the morning I would loss, possibly due to the runners in the front of for these events. It does indeed cause a percentage of non forecast favourites. Taking the complete sample of 1, observations and analysing the additional bets the betting forecast had no impact on the. I moved onto see what innovation and it will be and go through them again. I now have a small upon settlement of bets to. Forecast favourite that started 5th useful tool for future system.

Does anyone have a definitive insight on how RP computes it s betting forecasts? I can t find any worthwhile information on how it is computed. Racing Post, the home of horse racing news, cards and results. Get expert racing tips, form and analysis. Explore our jockey, trainer, and horse profiles. Forecast statistics and form. View results Forecast. (GB). Track Horse. 9yo: (​12Apr12 ch g). Breeder: Juddmonte Farms Ltd Bet restrictions and T&Cs apply.