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Previous: 2. Previous: 5. Those who believe the Aggies should have found their way into the fourth CFP spot have a legitimate argument— it was an impressive season for them. Previous: 6. Previous: 3. Their only loss this season was a nailbiter to Ohio State and Indiana is in business.
Previous: 8. Oklahoma : Oklahoma was able to take care of business in the Big 12 and bring home their 50th conference title. While their two losses keeps them firmly short of the CFP, they get Florida in the Cotton Bowl in what might be the best bowl matchup of the year. Previous: 9. Previous: Two losses bumps them down the list, but compared to teams like Iowa State or Northwestern, Georgia is coming out on top.
Previous: NR. They blew the doors off Miami this past week and hurdle them for the third spot. They only have two losses on the year, both to ranked opponents, and have proven their might in a win over Duke a couple weeks ago. NC State : is NC State lacks a statement win, but their record is undeniable in the conference. They brought home their 50th conference championship this season and solidified a spot in the Cotton Bowl. Iowa State: The Cyclones came up just short in the Big 12 title game.
It was a good showing, but they ultimately lacked experience enough to take care of Oklahoma twice in one year. Oklahoma State: Oklahoma State has waffled in every prove-it game this season vs Oklahoma and vs Texas. Luckily for the Cowboys, the rest of the Big 12 is in rough shape. Ohio State: The Buckeyes are exactly as good as advertised.
Indiana: Indiana competed better with Ohio State than Northwestern did, coming up bigger in the second half as opposed to the first. The Hoosiers are an excellent football team worthy of the second spot. Northwestern: It was an inspiring first half, but the lack of offense and questionable play calling cost the Wildcats a Big Ten championship against a hobbled Ohio State team. The Hawkeyes are a legitimate contender— potentially the last contender in the conference. Minnesota: This is where the Big Ten lays this year.
Colorado : The Buffs were upended by an inspired performance from a dangerous Utah team for their first loss of the season. Oregon: Wait— the conference champions third on the list? Oregon lucked into their championship spot but won it nonetheless. The Bruins are solid. Georgia: Georgia has been quiet since being beaten soundly by Alabama and Florida. That leads to some lopsided scores and lofty spreads.
It can be difficult to find the right side of the line, but here are some analytics to consider:. Home Field Advantage — How historically strong is a particular team at home? Are you considering a school with a particularly dedicated fan base such as Auburn? Or betting a mid-major matchup between two schools in the MAC that will likely be played with light fanfare?
Rivalries — There are only a few games during the CFB season, but some count for more than others. The intensity of those rivalry games can often lead to closer finishes and that should be accounted for when betting point spreads. Obviously, poor weather makes it tougher to pass, catch, and kick, which often leads to fewer points. Some run-heavy teams thrive in inclement weather and teams from the south or west coast could struggle if playing on the road in a harsher climate.
Pace — As the average number of plays a team runs per game, this can primarily help you identify fast-paced games that are likely to go over the total, or slow-paced games that will go Under. PPP — Another key factor in CFB that can help you determine both the point total and potential winner against the spread is the number of explosive plays a team averages. This can be measured in points per play PPP and teams that average more PPP than their opponents tend to win over 80 percent of matchups.
If both teams average a lot of explosive plays and both defenses struggle to contain big plays, the Over becomes a much better proposition. Offensive efficiency — The ability of a team to finish drives offensive efficiency can serve as a great indicator for which teams are capable of covering the spread and which games are likely to go Over or Under an expected point total.
Pass yards per attempt is another indicator of which teams are successful on offense in terms of controlling possession and creating points. Defensive efficiency — When betting on the point total, consider which teams have greater defensive efficiency.
Win Probability — This is an advanced tool that can help tremendously with live betting. Algorithms can provide the likelihood of a team holding on for the win and that makes for a very safe bet. Injuries and Player Factors — Finally, you have to consider the health of key players and any potential storylines about a rift between a player and the coaching staff. Coaches have all the power in CFB and sometimes players will underperform if they feel slighted or otherwise mistreated.
Each game brings its own criteria in terms of analytics and there is almost always ample time to crunch the numbers and find an edge. That opens the door for savvy bettors to hammer a line that they think is off the mark. There are significant differences in the format of each game.
CFB teams can carry up to 70 players and certain programs will use nearly everyone on the team to maintain a fast-paced style popularized by Chip Kelly at Oregon. There is slightly less betting activity in college compared to the NFL, and far less coverage in terms of injury updates. The ACC used to require a pre-game injury report from teams, but has since nixed that requirement. Last season, we saw LSU put together one of the best college football teams of all time.
The popular, heavily bet games provide excellent contrarian value to shaded lines and a soft, recreational market on which to capitalize. On the other hand, a low-bet game has nonexistent contrarian value, but sharp line moves are easier to spot because only pros with an edge are betting Incarnate Word-Abilene Christian under, driving down the total from to Neutral-court unders: Many teams play early-season tournaments, such as the Maui Invitational.
These games are on neutral courts. Historically, neutral courts provide a huge edge to betting unders. Because young college athletes are not used to the unfamiliar surroundings, including the backboards, courts and shooting backdrops.
Since , unders played on a neutral court have gone 1,, When the neutral-court total is high or more , the under improves to Good field-goal-shooting unders : Public bettors love taking overs because they want to see a fun, high-scoring game and cash in the end.
The sportsbooks know this public bias and will shade lines to the over. This creates a buy-low opportunity to contrarian bettors to sweat inflated unders. This is especially true with two teams that shoot well from the floor. The public says they make a lot of their shots, so the total must go over.
But the exact opposite is true. High-total, big-spread unders: In the NBA, a high total is considered about or higher. When a home team is a big favorite or more and the total is or higher, the under has gone Chances are the home team will be up big and take its foot off the gas late, leading to low-scoring garbage time. Low-total overs: It may seem obvious, but when a total is super low, the over has cashed at a high rate.
Since , when the total is or less, the over has gone Bet against the public in big conference games: Going contrarian is a smart long-term strategy because more often than not, the public loses, and the house always wins. But you can bet against the public only in big games that feature heavy public action. A good rule of thumb is to look for nationally televised games featuring big-name schools and ranked teams.
If the public is heavy on one side in these matchups, backing the contrarian dog has added value. This is when the season really heats up and we get great rivalry games, especially on Saturdays. Conference play provides a big edge to underdogs.
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